Vijesti
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Fajl mozete preuzeti ovdje.

Od strane Ministarstva Pomorstva i saobraćaja, Udruženju je dostavljen predlog Pravilnika o zvanjima i ovlašćenjime o osposobljenosti pomoraca koji je upućen našim članovima na razmatranje i davanje eventualnih sugestija i komentara. Ažurnost u komentarima je dobrodošla jer je prelazni period za 'Manila amandmane 2010' već započeo. 

Whilst the current poor and flat freight market is typical for the summer months the problem is that it has basically been much the same so far all this year and we seriously doubt there will be any real improvement any time soon. Last week saw the BDI remain almost par (actually -1%) caused by the BCI reversing its negative trend into a +4% gain whilst the BPI reversed its +6.8% gain the week before into a -7.5% loss last week. The BSI and BHSI remained flat, each off by just -1%.

 

The dry S+P market is still seeing a reasonable number of deals done especially of sought after Japanese tonnage to overseas buyers, whilst the wet S+P sector remains much quieter.
The activity of note however is of IPO companies (new and old) raising even more cash on their various bourses and companies able to raise funds via private equity, who are promptly investing mainly in even more newbuildings. The end effect we can see developing is that a relatively small number of shipowners who are able to raise such funds NOW and immediately invest at the current bottom of the market cycle whether on cheap modern second hand vessels or cheap newbuildings that
will deliver in 2 or 3 years time, are likely to end up in very strong positions as and when the market eventually recovers in the next few years time.

 

Of course this is the time when the banks should be lending too, but they are still in recovery mode after getting it so spectacularly wrong by carrying on lending at the top of the last mega boom, and will probably only manage to recover in time to make the same mistake again by lending near to and at the top of the next market peak whenever that may occur....
In the demolition sector the main talking point seems to be how sub continent buyers are managing to circumvent US and European embargoes by buying up to 8 VLCC's which have been linked with Iran.
Whilst Pakistan (the usual destination for large tankers) has not got involved, it seems Bangladesh and India are both willing to take the risk basis discounted prices. Meanwhile other demolition business continues against generally weak demand from the sub continent as monsoon season and Ramadan continues, whilst China remains a little more active but still paying rates generally about $40-50 below sub continent offerings.

Kriza u brodarstvu ne jenjava i traže se modeli za izlazak iz nje. U sledećem članku nalazi se interesantan primjer koji predstavlja odgovor njemačkih brodara, brokera a i banaka, a kojim će se na drugačijim osnovama postaviti fluktuiranje vrijednosti brodova a samim time i način otplate kredita. Naravno, bez odgovora , za sada, ostaju pitanja kao na primjer : što ako neki brodar poželi da proda svoj brod iz bilo kojih razloga? Koja će se cijena primjenjivati ? Kako će se valutacije koje ne odgovaraju tržišnim reflektovati na portofolio banaka ? Kako će revizori obavljati svoj dio posla ? Ova i mnoštvo drugih pitanja sigurno će biti plodno tlo za rasprave koje će nakon primjene ovog zakona uslijediti .

 

 

Last week the German government introduced new rules (The Capital Investment Accounting and Valuation Ordinance) governing the calculation of ship values under the umbrella of the new Capital Investment Code, a measure that has been endorsed by German shipowners and shipbrokers alike. In essence, it accepts the relevance of the long-term asset value (LTAV) method of discounting future cashflows in helping to determine ship values in a disrupted market. We recall that this model was first introduced in 2009, to widespread derision, at a time when markets were in seizure. It had become difficult to determine asset values in a market suddenly devoid of S&P activity, made worse by the suspension of Clarksons' weekly ship valuation benchmarks. In a normally functioning market, vessel appraisers will assess the market value on any given day based upon the concept of 'willing buyer, willing seller'. In 2009 this was not possible. It was more a case of 'willing buyer, unwilling seller' and 'opportunistic buyer, forced seller'. A loss of confidence, accompanied by a theoretical collapse in values, paralysed S&P activity. It also triggered a wave of buyer defaults at shipyards and panic amidst financing banks no longer able to track their exposure. So, a combination of current fair market value (FMV) and LTAV assessments is not a bad idea, but there are flaws in each as we will attempt to illustrate.
First, the subject of LTAV. One flaw is that, outside examples in LNG and Japan, ships are generally not built against lifetime employment, so there are no hard cashflows to discount. In its place one must assess future earnings based upon past performance. This would require eliminating the distorting spikes of the last decade, but to what extent? Then the discount rate would vary between owners if set at their weighted average cost of capital, thus giving rise to differing values for the same ship depending upon the relative creditworthiness of the owner. One would also need to find a way of reflecting a universal level of default risk as we know all too well that assumptions of long-term earnings are easily dashed when rates are renegotiated by the likes of troubled Sanko, Torm, OSG, CSAV and STX Pan Ocean, to name but a few. This would suggest that attempts to assess a DCF value are even more subjective and error prone than simply trying to put a FMV on a ship on any given day. But the FMV method is not without its shortcomings in both disrupted and functioning markets.
An example of the former is the yard sale of the CMA CGM Kessel (6,672-teu Hanjin 2009) for $41m in January 2010, one month after its delivery. CMA CGM had taken the first in the series but defaulted on the balance three, unable to raise finance. In the Kessel's case (No.2), about 50% of the $99m contract price had been prepaid, the shipyard retaining that and adding the $41m sale proceeds to its mitigate losses. The market was appalled and largely refused to accept the sale as representative, prompting the first attempt to introduce the LTAV valuation method in Hamburg. In December 2010, Hanjin sold the sistership Fourth Ocean for $75m, having received 40% of the $100m contract price, after its Iranian contractors defaulted on a 4-ship series. It delivered in Jan 2011 having been launched in Jan 2009. Today's nominal value for such a prompt delivery resale is $63m. The prices are all valid at the time, just that some buyers buy better than others. A more topical situation is the mooted sale of MPC's Santa P Fund fleet of six 5,000-teu 2005-built boxships. These 32.2m narrow-beam panamaxes can only earn about $10,000 daily in today's market compared to double that for similar size eco, wide-beam types. They cannot service their debts, which average $22.7m per ship, and attempts to raise $25m fresh investor equity yielded only $3.5m. Upshot, they have to be sold. Latest Maersk Broker benchmarks suggest they are worth $30m each, whereas latest Clarkson benchmarks suggest they are worth only $19m each. In the first case the banks get out clean, in the second they are in the barbershop. We are confused; should we call for a LTAV assessment?
The German Shipowners' Association has stated that: "The LTAV can help shipping companies and ship financing banks navigate their way through the difficult crisis prevailing in the maritime shipping sector". This statement would make one believe that the crisis is new, but it has been running for five years already. Maybe it is more an admission that not enough has been done by either its own shipping companies or its banks. Denial and ostrich-like forbearance have been German shipping's own form of QE, kicking the can down the road. BaFin, the banking regulator, sees this clearly and is keen to get its house in order before handing over supervision to the ECB. Reuters reckons that German banks, including bailed out market leaders HSH and Commerzbank, still hold €100bn of shipping loans. HSH raised its loan loss provisions last year to €1.2bn on €27bn exposure; Commerz now classifies €4bn of its €19bn book as non-performing and NordLB has set aside €0.6bn against its €18bn book. Germany is forcing austerity measures onto the peripheral Eurozone after serial bad behaviour. Maybe now is the time to turn the spotlight onto its own shipping industry.

 

Izvor : HSS

BOX RATES have dropped for the third straight week since liner operators implemented general rate increases.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index assessed the Asia/North Europe rate at $1,240 per teu, down $50 from the previous week. The Asia/Mediterranean rate lost $63 to $1,235/teu.

Trans-Pacific rates also declined, with the Asia-US West Coast rate losing $64 to $1,979/feu and the Asia/US East Coast rate losing $22 to $3,293/feu.

Although liner operators plan to seek more rate increases, effective 1 August, the current trend casts doubt on success.

Drewry's World Container Index showed a corresponding decline. Its Shanghai/Rotterdam assessment showed a $129 drop to $2,463/feu, while the Shanghai/Genoa rate lost $110 to $2,542/feu.

The index's Shanghai/LA fell $91 to $1,982/feu and the Shanghai/NY rate slipped $22 to $3,311/feu.

Although the idle fleet is estimated at 11%, this is largely related to STX Pan Ocean's troubles, as liners are reactivating their bigger idle units for the summer peak season.

Clarkson's commented: "We seem to be in all too familiar territory, with weak fundamentals taking their inevitable toll on rates. Whilst there is broad expectance that the August rate increase will go through, longevity as ever will be the key.

"With this spike/decline in rates becoming ever more disruptive [and predictable] an approach towards restructuring deployed capacity seems to be in everyone's best interest," it added.

 

Izvor : FP

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