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Kriza u brodarstvu ne jenjava i traže se modeli za izlazak iz nje. U sledećem članku nalazi se interesantan primjer koji predstavlja odgovor njemačkih brodara, brokera a i banaka, a kojim će se na drugačijim osnovama postaviti fluktuiranje vrijednosti brodova a samim time i način otplate kredita. Naravno, bez odgovora , za sada, ostaju pitanja kao na primjer : što ako neki brodar poželi da proda svoj brod iz bilo kojih razloga? Koja će se cijena primjenjivati ? Kako će se valutacije koje ne odgovaraju tržišnim reflektovati na portofolio banaka ? Kako će revizori obavljati svoj dio posla ? Ova i mnoštvo drugih pitanja sigurno će biti plodno tlo za rasprave koje će nakon primjene ovog zakona uslijediti .



Last week the German government introduced new rules (The Capital Investment Accounting and Valuation Ordinance) governing the calculation of ship values under the umbrella of the new Capital Investment Code, a measure that has been endorsed by German shipowners and shipbrokers alike. In essence, it accepts the relevance of the long-term asset value (LTAV) method of discounting future cashflows in helping to determine ship values in a disrupted market. We recall that this model was first introduced in 2009, to widespread derision, at a time when markets were in seizure. It had become difficult to determine asset values in a market suddenly devoid of S&P activity, made worse by the suspension of Clarksons' weekly ship valuation benchmarks. In a normally functioning market, vessel appraisers will assess the market value on any given day based upon the concept of 'willing buyer, willing seller'. In 2009 this was not possible. It was more a case of 'willing buyer, unwilling seller' and 'opportunistic buyer, forced seller'. A loss of confidence, accompanied by a theoretical collapse in values, paralysed S&P activity. It also triggered a wave of buyer defaults at shipyards and panic amidst financing banks no longer able to track their exposure. So, a combination of current fair market value (FMV) and LTAV assessments is not a bad idea, but there are flaws in each as we will attempt to illustrate.
First, the subject of LTAV. One flaw is that, outside examples in LNG and Japan, ships are generally not built against lifetime employment, so there are no hard cashflows to discount. In its place one must assess future earnings based upon past performance. This would require eliminating the distorting spikes of the last decade, but to what extent? Then the discount rate would vary between owners if set at their weighted average cost of capital, thus giving rise to differing values for the same ship depending upon the relative creditworthiness of the owner. One would also need to find a way of reflecting a universal level of default risk as we know all too well that assumptions of long-term earnings are easily dashed when rates are renegotiated by the likes of troubled Sanko, Torm, OSG, CSAV and STX Pan Ocean, to name but a few. This would suggest that attempts to assess a DCF value are even more subjective and error prone than simply trying to put a FMV on a ship on any given day. But the FMV method is not without its shortcomings in both disrupted and functioning markets.
An example of the former is the yard sale of the CMA CGM Kessel (6,672-teu Hanjin 2009) for $41m in January 2010, one month after its delivery. CMA CGM had taken the first in the series but defaulted on the balance three, unable to raise finance. In the Kessel's case (No.2), about 50% of the $99m contract price had been prepaid, the shipyard retaining that and adding the $41m sale proceeds to its mitigate losses. The market was appalled and largely refused to accept the sale as representative, prompting the first attempt to introduce the LTAV valuation method in Hamburg. In December 2010, Hanjin sold the sistership Fourth Ocean for $75m, having received 40% of the $100m contract price, after its Iranian contractors defaulted on a 4-ship series. It delivered in Jan 2011 having been launched in Jan 2009. Today's nominal value for such a prompt delivery resale is $63m. The prices are all valid at the time, just that some buyers buy better than others. A more topical situation is the mooted sale of MPC's Santa P Fund fleet of six 5,000-teu 2005-built boxships. These 32.2m narrow-beam panamaxes can only earn about $10,000 daily in today's market compared to double that for similar size eco, wide-beam types. They cannot service their debts, which average $22.7m per ship, and attempts to raise $25m fresh investor equity yielded only $3.5m. Upshot, they have to be sold. Latest Maersk Broker benchmarks suggest they are worth $30m each, whereas latest Clarkson benchmarks suggest they are worth only $19m each. In the first case the banks get out clean, in the second they are in the barbershop. We are confused; should we call for a LTAV assessment?
The German Shipowners' Association has stated that: "The LTAV can help shipping companies and ship financing banks navigate their way through the difficult crisis prevailing in the maritime shipping sector". This statement would make one believe that the crisis is new, but it has been running for five years already. Maybe it is more an admission that not enough has been done by either its own shipping companies or its banks. Denial and ostrich-like forbearance have been German shipping's own form of QE, kicking the can down the road. BaFin, the banking regulator, sees this clearly and is keen to get its house in order before handing over supervision to the ECB. Reuters reckons that German banks, including bailed out market leaders HSH and Commerzbank, still hold €100bn of shipping loans. HSH raised its loan loss provisions last year to €1.2bn on €27bn exposure; Commerz now classifies €4bn of its €19bn book as non-performing and NordLB has set aside €0.6bn against its €18bn book. Germany is forcing austerity measures onto the peripheral Eurozone after serial bad behaviour. Maybe now is the time to turn the spotlight onto its own shipping industry.


Izvor : HSS

BOX RATES have dropped for the third straight week since liner operators implemented general rate increases.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index assessed the Asia/North Europe rate at $1,240 per teu, down $50 from the previous week. The Asia/Mediterranean rate lost $63 to $1,235/teu.

Trans-Pacific rates also declined, with the Asia-US West Coast rate losing $64 to $1,979/feu and the Asia/US East Coast rate losing $22 to $3,293/feu.

Although liner operators plan to seek more rate increases, effective 1 August, the current trend casts doubt on success.

Drewry's World Container Index showed a corresponding decline. Its Shanghai/Rotterdam assessment showed a $129 drop to $2,463/feu, while the Shanghai/Genoa rate lost $110 to $2,542/feu.

The index's Shanghai/LA fell $91 to $1,982/feu and the Shanghai/NY rate slipped $22 to $3,311/feu.

Although the idle fleet is estimated at 11%, this is largely related to STX Pan Ocean's troubles, as liners are reactivating their bigger idle units for the summer peak season.

Clarkson's commented: "We seem to be in all too familiar territory, with weak fundamentals taking their inevitable toll on rates. Whilst there is broad expectance that the August rate increase will go through, longevity as ever will be the key.

"With this spike/decline in rates becoming ever more disruptive [and predictable] an approach towards restructuring deployed capacity seems to be in everyone's best interest," it added.


Izvor : FP

NET ADDITIONS to the drybulk carrier fleet sank to a four-month low in June on lower newbuilding deliveries and higher demolitions.

IHS Fairplay's Sea-web data shows 57 bulkers were delivered in June, while 31 bulkers were scrapped, resulting in net fleet additions of 26 ships.

In February 46 bulkers were delivered, while 33 bulkers were scrapped, creating net fleet additions of 13 ships.

June saw the delivery of 13 Handysizes, 15 Handymaxes, 19 Panamaxes, and 10 Capesizes.

In comparison, May saw the delivery of 67 bulkers comprising 22 Handysizes, 12 Handymaxes, 26 Panamaxes, and seven Capesizes.

June saw the demolition of 18 Handysizes, three Handymax, six Panamaxes and four Capesizes. In comparison, May saw the demolition of 28 ships comprising 17 Handysizes, three Handymaxes, four Panamaxes and four Capesizes.

Drybulk consultancy Commodore Research said: "It is encouraging and not at all surprising that drybulk fleet growth has fallen to a more manageable level. Going forward, drybulk fleet growth is poised to remain relatively low, and as the months progress this will have an even more pronounced effect on the market.

"The second half of this year will see fleet growth remain much lower than fleet growth seen during 1H13. While we are not at full recovery yet, we are finally approaching a more manageable level of growth that has not been seen since 4Q12."


Izvor : IHS

The European Community Shipowners' Association also wants the EU and its members to negotiate with countries in the region the right to use armed guards on vessels trading there when they are deemed to be at risk.

ECSA said in a statement that the Gulf of Guinea's security problems mean that an international naval presence is urgently needed outside of territorial waters.

Longer-term, shore-based measures are also needed to address piracy, but in the meantime EU countries must take "immediate and concrete action", it declared.

Using armed guards could provoke an escalation of violence, the group conceded, but this is still an option owners need, along with other forms of self-protection, it added.

The poor quality of local guards and the difficulties involved in using armed guards in territorial waters now prevent owners from making the maximum effort to assure seafarer safety, warned the group.

It has also called on the EU to extend the mandate of EU NAVFOR Atlanta "at least until 2016", arguing that the current lull in pirate activity in the Gulf of Aden is "easily reversible".


Izvor : IHS

Postovane kolege i posjetioci sajta ,

zbog premijestanja sajta na nove servere T-com-a , moralo se pristupiti kompletnoj preradi starog sajta , sada u novom formatu i programu, koji je jos u fazi dorade pa Vas molimo za razumijevanje i strpljenje.  


S postovanjem,


Kap. Mario Pilastro